Average population. Concept and indicators of population Average annual population calculation formula for the year
Determination of average annual population
Task 2.
Determine the average annual population of the city, if at the beginning of the year the population was 16,000 people, at the end of the year - 16,800 people. In addition, during the 4 months of the holiday season there were 30 thousand visitors.
1. The average annual population of the city is calculated:
16400 people
2. The average annual population of this city, taking into account holidaymakers, is calculated as follows: first, calculate the average number of holidaymakers living in this city, i.e. find an amendment taking into account holidaymakers:
7500 people
- 3. The average annual population of the city, taking into account holidaymakers, will be equal to:
- 16400 + 7500 = 23900 people.
Calculation of annual and average annual population growth rate
Task 3.
Based on population data at the beginning of 2007, 2008, 2009. (data in table).
- -annual population growth rate (in total, and depending on gender);
- -average annual population growth rate (in total, and depending on gender). Draw conclusions.
1. The growth rate is calculated using the formula:
Let's find the total population for 2007, 2008, 2009:
M + F = 67905 + 77562 = 145167 people.
M + F = 67491 + 77433 = 144924 people.
M + F = 67024 + 77144 = 144168 people.
2007 - 2008:
By 08-07 *100% = 99.48
Let's find the annual growth rate of the population (as a whole):
2008 - 2009:
By 09-08 *100% = 99.48
2007 - 2008:
By 08-07 *100% = 99.83
2007 - 2008:
By 08-07 *100% = 99.83
Let's find the annual population growth rate (for men):
2008 - 2009:
By 09-08 *100% = 99.31
Let's find the annual population growth rate (for women):
2008 - 2009:
By 09-08 *100% = 99.63
Let's summarize the results in a table.
Annual population growth rate
2. Average annual population growth rate:
Let's find the average annual growth rate of the population (as a whole):
2007 - 2009:
r = 10 -1 = 10 - 0.0009997 - 1 = 0.0022992 ? 2,023
Let's find the average annual population growth rate (men):
2007 - 2009:
r = 10 - 1 = -0.0028779 ? -0.003
Let's find the average annual population growth rate (women):
2007 - 2009:
r = 10 - 1 = -0.0053891 ? -0.0054
Let's summarize the results in a table.
Average annual population growth rate
Annual growth rate (for men and women) of the population for 2007 - 2008. equal to 99.83%, and it is approximately equal to the growth rate for both men and women for this year. Annual growth rate (for men and women) of the population for 2008 - 2009. is 99.48%, for men this year the population growth rate is lower 99.31% than the growth rate for women - 99.63%. In general, according to the annual growth rate for 2007 - 2009. we can conclude that the growth rate is slower, and the population is only decreasing.
If we talk about the average annual growth rate for 2007 - 2009, it is obvious that the final result will be negative, both for men and women, and for the general population (men and women).
Average annual growth rate of the male population for 2007 - 2009. higher than the growth rate of the female population. All this may be associated with a low birth rate or a high mortality rate.
age population migration demographic
- population census - a general (complete) census of the population, during which the collection of demographic, economic and social data is carried out, characterizing at a certain point in time each resident of a country or administrative territory.
- special sample studies that make it possible to trace changes in the composition of the population during the intercensal period.
In the activities of doctors and healthcare system managers, the following are of particular importance:
Data on total numbers are usually given based on the actual population.
The current population includes persons located in a given territory at the time of the census, including temporary residents.
Methods for current population estimation in intercensal years
The given formulas for calculating the population size can be used only if the population dynamics are stable in the period between censuses and after the second (last) census.
Current population estimates are updated based on the results of the next census.
Based on the size of the resident population, information is provided that characterizes the age and sex composition.
The permanent (legal, registered) population includes persons permanently residing in a given territory, including those temporarily absent. These persons are registered or associated with the given territory by the current registration rules, regardless of their actual residence.
The size of the permanent population in each locality is determined by adding to the existing population those temporarily absent and excluding persons temporarily residing in a given locality at the time of the census:
Permanent population = Present population + Temporarily absent - Temporarily present
From this ratio you can obtain the number of any category.
Used to calculate fertility, morbidity, mortality, etc. indicators.
Methods for estimating average annual population
G R U P P I R O V C A N A S E L E N I
In addition to the number of people, it is necessary to know the composition of the population, that is, the number and ratio of its individual groups. The population is grouped according to various social (social status, nationality, profession, occupation, marital status, education, place of residence, etc.) and biological (gender, age) characteristics.
Sex structure (sexual composition) of the population- distribution of the population into men and women. In medical demography, two different ways of representing sex structure are used.
- simple calculation of the absolute numbers and shares of men and women in the entire population and in individual age groups.
- determination of the so-called sex ratio, i.e. the ratio of the number of men to the number of women (or vice versa) in the entire population or in individual age groups.
Typically, sex ratio is calculated as the number of men per 100 or 1000 women (or, less commonly, the number of women per 100 or 1000 men).
The structure of the population by gender is usually depicted in the form of a sector or intra-bar chart based on the proportion of men and women in the population.
grouping by age |
Biological age in medical demography it is used as the most important characteristic of any demographic events. In this regard, they talk about the average age of the dead, the average age of marriage, the average childbearing age, etc.
To assess the different age periods of a person’s life, the United Nations (UN) classification, presented in Table 1, is widely used.
Table 1. UN classification of age periods
| Calendar age | Period of human life |
| 17 days | Newborns |
| 7 days - 1 year | Babies |
| 1 - 3 years | Early childhood |
| 4 - 7 years | First childhood |
| 8 - 12 years old (boys) 8 - 11 years old (girls) | Second childhood |
| 13 - 16 years old (boys) 13 - 15 years old (girls) | Teenagers |
| 17 - 21 years old | Boys |
| 16 - 20 years | Girls |
| 22 - 35 years old (men) 21 - 35 years old (women) | I period of maturity |
| 36 - 60 years (men) 36 - 55 years (women) | II period of maturity |
| 61 - 74 years (men) 56 - 74 years (women) | Aged people |
| 75 - 90 years | Old people |
| Over 90 years old | Centenarians |
Population aging, or demographic aging, refers to an increase in the proportion of elderly and old people in the total population. Population aging is the result of long-term demographic changes, shifts in the nature of fertility and mortality, their ratio, as well as migration.
There are two types of population aging:
- aging from below, which results from declining fertility;
- aging from above, which is the result of an increase in the average life expectancy, a decrease in mortality in older age against the background of low birth rates.
To assess the degree of population aging, special scales are used. The most common is the scale of J. Beaujeu-Garnier - E. Rosset, where the age of 60 years is used as a criterion (Table 2).
Table 2. Demographic aging scale by J. Beauge-Garnier - E. Rosset
According to the All-Russian Population Census (2002), the proportion of people over 60 years of age in Russia is 20.5%, which, according to this scale, corresponds to a very high level of demographic aging of the population.
The UN demographic aging scale uses age 65 years as a criterion. According to this scale, a population with a proportion of people aged 65 years and older less than 4% is considered young; if this proportion is less than 7%, then the population is on the threshold of old age, and if it is 7% or more, then the population is considered old.
To visually represent the age-sex structure of the population, so-called age-sex pyramids are built (Fig. 1). This pyramid is a two-sided bar chart of the population's age distribution, with the female population on one side and the male population on the other. The vertical axis of the histogram represents the age scale, expressed in one- or five-year intervals, ranging from 0 years to 85 years or more. The total population of a given sex and age, or its share in the total population or in the population of a given sex, is depicted as horizontal bars.
To establish the exact age structure of the population in yearly age intervals, demographic statistics resort to various methods of equalizing numerical data obtained from censuses.
There are a number of methods for smoothing series of age-specific indicators obtained directly from census materials. Among them are the moving average method and the moving parabola method. Thus, V.S. Yastremsky (1952) proposed a method in which for each five-year interval smoothing is carried out using a third-order parabola. In this case, the equalized (true) amount of each five-year group is determined by the following formula:
where S -2; S -1 ; S0; S 1 ; S 2 - uneven sums of the population of five consecutive ages of the corresponding five-year period.
Standard age intervals are widely used to analyze the demographic situation and calculate population health indicators.
The working population is considered to be men aged 16-59 years and women aged 16-54 years, and persons of retirement age are men from 60 years of age, women from 55 years of age.
In special studies, more granular age groupings may be used, especially for young children. Specifically, the first year of life can be divided into months, the first month of life into weeks, and the first week into days. The second, third year of life, etc. can be separately distinguished.
To assess the processes of population reproduction, it is important to distinguish among women the age group capable of childbearing (according to the WHO classification, fertile age includes women 15-49 years old), as well as younger and older groups.
Based on the calculation of the proportion of persons aged 0-14, 15-49, 50 years and older, the age type of the population is determined. In accordance with this, three types of age structures are distinguished:
The progressive type of population ensures a further increase in the population, while the regressive type threatens the nation with depopulation.
To characterize the spatial distribution of the population, the population density indicator is used, which represents the number of permanent population per unit area (1 km 2), and is determined by the following formula: D = P / Q,
where P is the number of permanent population of the territory; Q is the area of the territory (excluding large water basins). The population density indicator allows you to group the territory according to the degree of population concentration.
Statistics help researchers evaluate the processes that occur in a system. Various factors can be grouped and compared with other similar categories. The population and processes occurring in the social sphere are studied quite thoroughly by statistics. After all, this reflects the existing demographic situation at the global level.
Average annual population is involved in many economic studies at the macro level. Therefore, this important category of data is constantly monitored and recalculated. The importance of the indicator, as well as the analysis methodology, are discussed in the article.
Population
To be able to determine the average annual population of a city, region or country, it is necessary to understand the essence of the subject of research. The demographic situation can be viewed from different angles.
Population refers to the entire number of people who live within the boundaries of a certain territory. To analyze the demographic situation, this indicator is considered in the context of natural reproduction (fertility and mortality) and migration. They also examine the structure of the population (by age, gender, economic and social level, etc.). Demographic data also shows how the settlement of people across the territory has changed.
The population is studied by statistics using general and special methods. This allows us to draw full, in-depth conclusions about the development of demographic indicators.
Directions of analysis
The average annual population is estimated using different methods depending on the purpose of the analysis. The demographic picture that has developed over a certain period of time in a specific territory can be considered in the context of the dynamics of the total population.
To understand why certain changes occurred, it is necessary to evaluate the natural movement and migration of people. For this purpose, relevant data are taken into account in the analysis. In order to have a complete understanding of population grouping and the formation of the total number of people, they are classified according to certain criteria.
For example, the study shows how many women and men live in a certain territory, what age they are, how many people from the working population have qualifications and the highest level of education.
Calculation formula
To recount the population, various formulas are used. But sometimes the calculation is complicated by collecting data over several time intervals. If there is information at the beginning and end of the period, the average annual population (formula) has the following form:
CHNavg. = (CHNn.p. + CHNk.p.) / 2, where CHNav. - average population, CHnn.p. - number of population at the beginning of the period, ChNk.p. - number at the end of the period.
If statistics were collected for each month of the study period, the formula would be:
CHNavg. = (0.5 CHN1 + CHN2 … CHNp-1 + 0.5 CHNp)(n-1), where CHN1, CHN2 … CHNp-1 is the number of the population at the beginning of the month, n is the number of months.
Data for analysis
The average annual population, the formula of which was presented above, takes a series of data for calculation. It is necessary to calculate the constant number of population living in this territory (PN). It includes the actual number of people who actually live in the study area (SR).
In addition to this indicator, to study the demographic state of the country, the category of the population temporarily residing here (TP) is taken into account. Temporarily absent people (TA) also take part in the count. Only this indicator is subtracted from the total amount. The permanent resident population formula looks like this:
PN = NN + VP - VO.
To distinguish between the VP and NN indicators, a time interval of 6 months is taken into account. If a group of people lives in the study area for more than six months, they are classified as the existing population, and for less than six months - as a temporary population.
Population census
The average annual resident population is calculated based on data. But this process requires a significant investment of time, effort and money. Therefore, it is not possible to conduct a census every month or even year.
Therefore, in the intervals between recalculating the number of people in a certain territory, a system of logical calculations is used. Collect statistics on births and deaths, migration movements. But over time, a certain error in the indicators accumulates.
Therefore, to correctly determine the average annual population, it is still necessary to conduct a periodic census.
Application of analysis data
Calculation of the average annual population is carried out for the purpose of further research of demographic processes. The result of the analysis is used in calculating mortality and fertility rates and natural reproduction. They are calculated for each age group.
Also, the average number is applicable when estimating the number of working-age and economically active population. In this case, they can consider the totality of people who left or arrived in the territory of a country or region through migration. This makes it possible to assess the potential of the entire workforce concentrated here.
Correct distribution of labor resources is the key to the economic development of the state. Therefore, the importance of counting the population cannot be overestimated.
Natural population movement
The average annual population, the calculation formula for which was discussed above, is involved in the assessment of various demographic indicators. One of them is the natural movement of the population. It is caused by the natural processes of fertility and mortality.
Over the course of a year, the average population increases by the number of newborn children and decreases by the number of deaths. This is the natural course of life. The coefficients of natural movement are found relative to the average population. If the birth rate exceeds the death rate, there is an increase (and vice versa).
Also, when conducting such an analysis, a breakdown of the population by age categories is performed. This determines which group had the highest mortality rate. This allows us to draw a conclusion about the standard of living in the study area and the social security of citizens.
Migration
The number of inhabitants can change not only due to natural processes. People leave to work or, conversely, come for the purpose of employment. If such migrants are present or absent from the study site for more than 6 months, this must be taken into account in the analysis.
Significant migration flows affect the economy. changes both with a decrease and an increase in the number of able-bodied residents.
The average annual population will help to find both the growth rate and the decrease in labor supply in the region. If too many emigrants enter the country, the unemployment rate will rise. A decrease in the number of working-age population leads to a budget deficit, reduction in pensions, salaries of doctors, teachers, etc. Therefore, the presented indicator is also extremely necessary to control the migration movement.
Economic activity
In addition to changes in the quantitative ratio of the entire population of a country or region, a structural analysis is necessarily carried out. Typically, there are three classes of population based on income level.
The average annual number allows us to estimate the purchasing power of residents and their standard of living. In developed countries, the majority of society is made up of people with average incomes. They can purchase necessary food products, things, periodically make large purchases, and travel.
In such states there is a small percentage of very rich and poor people. If the number of low-income residents increases significantly, a greater financial burden falls on the budget. At the same time, the overall standard of living decreases.
All groups of the economically active population are presented as the average annual population.
Probability tables
To determine the average annual population without a census, the method of constructing probability tables is used. The fact is that most demographic processes can be predicted in advance. This concerns the natural movement of the population.
The table is built on the basis of several statements. Natural movement is irreversible, because you cannot die and be born twice. You can only have your first child once. A certain sequence of events must be taken into account. For example, you cannot enter into a second marriage if the first has not been registered.
The population is divided into age groups. For each of them, the probability of the occurrence of one or another event is different. Next, the number of people included in each category is analyzed.
Over time, people with a certain degree of probability move into one group or another. This is how a forecast is made. For example, the category of the population that is of working age will become pensioners. Therefore, analysts are able to predict how many people will join the next group.
Planning
Planning at the macroeconomic level cannot be done without statistical data. The average annual active population is taken into account when studying living standards, purchasing power, and also when developing the country's main economic document (budget).
The amount of its income and expenses cannot be predicted without taking into account the number and structure of the country’s inhabitants. The more people work in the non-budgetary sector, the higher their income level, the more significant the injections into budget funds will be.
If analysts determine a decline in input flows in the future, it is necessary to develop measures to improve the situation. Each state has its own apparatus of levers for managing demographic resources. By creating new jobs, pursuing sound social policies, and raising the standard of living of the population, we can make the country prosperous.
Analysis and planning of the demographic situation is carried out with the mandatory use of average annual population indicators, as well as other structural coefficients. Therefore, the adequacy of the country’s budget planning depends on the correctness of data collection and study.
Having considered such a concept as population, one can understand the importance of this indicator for macroeconomic analysis and planning. Many forecasts for the future of a country, region or city are made after proper collection and processing of relevant information. This is a necessary step when creating a budget plan and many other important financial documents.
The composition of the population is studied using groupings. With this, groupings of the population are made by gender, age, nationality, place of residence, marital status, level of education both in the country as a whole and in its individual regions.
Grouping the population by age helps to solve various problems in determining the contingents of preschoolers, schoolchildren, the size of the working-age population and the population over working age. Grouping by age is constructed both for the entire population and separately for men and women, for urban and rural populations.
For example, as of January 1, 2001, out of the total population of the country, 144.8 million people. The male population was 67.8 million people. (47%), female - 77.0 million people. (53%); The urban population was 105.6 million people. (73%); rural - 39.2 million people. (27%) Of the total population of Russia, the proportion of persons under working age was 19.20%, of working age - 60.15%, older than working age - 20.65%.
Study of the population and its distribution throughout the country
The population of the Russian Federation at the beginning of the year was:In Russian statistics, the population is taken into account not only for the country as a whole, but also for individual administrative-territorial units. The Russian Federation includes 21 republics, 6 territories, 49 regions, 2 federal cities, 1 autonomous region, 10 autonomous districts.
Population dynamics are characterized using analytical and average dynamics indicators (absolute growth, growth rate, growth rate, average absolute growth for the period, average growth rate for the period)
Average population over time period
To calculate a number of indicators, it is extremely important to know the average population size for the period.
Arithmetic mean
If the population size at the beginning and end of the year is known, then the average annual population is calculated as the arithmetic mean of these two numbers.
where, and are the population at the beginning and end of the period.
Example- At the beginning of the year, 200 thousand people.
- At the end of the year, 260 thousand people.
SCHN = 
thousand people
Average chronological values can be used to average momentary indicators. The fact is that in economic analysis and economic statistics both interval (for a certain period) and momentary (for a certain date) indicators can be used. To find the average values of interval indicators (sales revenue, profit, etc.), as a rule, arithmetic averages are used. It is worth saying that to find the average values of momentary indicators (about fixed assets, about the number of workers on any date, about the population), average chronological values are used. They are determined by the formula:
— ϶ᴛᴏ a number of moment indicators
Simple chronological average
If the intervals between observations are located at equal intervals of time, then the formula is a simple chronological average.
Population is the total population living in a certain territory.
The population at the beginning of each year can be determined using the balance equation:
St+1 = St + Nt – Mt + Пt – Bt,Where St And St +1– population at the beginning of the year t and year t+1 respectively;
Nt– number of births in a year t;
Mt– number of deaths per year t;
Pt– number of arrivals to a given territory per year t;
Bt– the number of people leaving a given territory per year t.
The average annual population can be calculated as the arithmetic average of the population indicators at the beginning and end of the period:
Where SH And S.K.– population at the beginning and end of the year, respectively.
If data on the population size for several equal dates are known, then the average population size for the period can be calculated using the chronological average formula for moment series:
– population size on a specific date.
To characterize population dynamics, indicators of time series are used.
Absolute indicators of population dynamics include:
1) basic absolute increases, characterizing an increase or decrease in the population indicator in each subsequent period compared to the base level S0:
?n = Sn – S0,Where S0– basic population level;
– population size in the next period compared to the base level;
2) chain absolute increases, characterizing an increase or decrease in the population indicator in the period under review compared to the previous period:
?n = Sn – Sn-1,– population size in the period under review;
Sn-1– population size in the previous period compared to the period under review;
3) average absolute increase, characterizing how many units, for example, the average population changes annually during the period under study:
Where n– number of periods under consideration.
Relative indicators of population dynamics include:
1) basic population growth (decrease) rates, characterizing how many times the population indicator in each subsequent period is greater or less than its base level S0.